Saturday, July 23, 2011

Chance Favors the Concentration of Wealth, -Estate Tax prevents, should be called Redistribution Taxes

Figure 1. Concentration of wealth over time. All simulations start with an even distribution of wealth. Unless otherwise noted, all simulations
were run with 100,000 individuals and a 5% yearly average return on investment. Red lines show the analytically expected trajectories (Eqn. 1); points
show the results from individual-based simulations. Three replicate simulations were run for each high variance simulation. (A) Higher variance
among individual rates of return increases the rate of wealth concentration. (B) Inequality as measured by the Gini coefficient also increases over
time. (C) Wealth concentrates even when the mean growth rate varies over time, such that in some years the total economy grows and in others the
economy shrinks. Average annual rates of return were randomly drawn from a normal distribution with m~ln 1:08&7:7% and s~0:19, with a new
value for the economy drawn each year. (D) Population growth and splitting estates among heirs does not significantly reduce rate of wealth
concentration. Dashed blue line shows the growing population. (E) A tax on inherited fortunes slows and arrests the concentration of wealth. (F)
Immigrants with mean wealth slow but do not arrest the concentration of wealth. Dashed blue line shows population increase from immigration.
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0020728.g001
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/07/110721172334.htm

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