Shoplifting on the rise: A sign of recovery?

http://money.cnn.com/2011/06/23/pf/shoplifting/index.htm?section=money_pf&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fmoney_pf+%28Personal+Finance%29

"A lot of times shoplifting is an inside job," said Jim Angel, associate professor of finance at the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University.

When the economy hit its lowest point, employees were primarily consumed with keeping their jobs, said Richard Hollinger, a criminology professor at the University of Florida and author of the security survey.

Shoplifting rates fell significantly in 2007. But as the recovery takes hold, shoplifting rates are on the rise again.

Workers were deterred from stealing simply because even minimum-wage jobs in retail were scarce. "They were so worried about their future, their families and paying the mortgage, they realized this is what is keeping their family afloat," Hollinger said.

As employees feel more secure in their positions, they may be more inclined to take some risks, Angel said.

At the same time, employers drastically reduced head counts during the recession, which left fewer employees on the floor with heavier workloads in the early stages of the recovery. As workers feel more disgruntled, theft becomes "very tempting," Hollinger said, "especially if they feel that the company can afford it and they're being paid minimum wage."

Interplay Between Cancer and Aging in Mice: Aging Due to Reduction in Cell Proliferation, Not Molecular Damage, Data Suggest

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/04/110405082616.htm


Although scientists know that loss of p16 is associated with numerous human tumors, they know much less about the function of p16 in normal cells and tissues. 

Enders' team engineered a strain of mice that enables them to control p16 expression in various tissues and at various times in an animal's lifespan. They quickly found that turning on p16 blocked cell proliferation in normal tissues. The implications of blocked cell proliferation emerged when they expressed p16 in animals that were not yet fully mature. 

"They developed features of premature aging," Enders says. "To my knowledge, this is the first model that induces striking characteristics of premature aging where there is no macromolecular damage. The premature aging appears to be the result of blocking cell proliferation."

Previous work showed that p16 accumulates in tissues as they age, but these new data suggest that p16 is not just associated with aging. Instead, the protein may be playing a more causal role. "What this suggests to us is that p16 may be an effector of aging -- not just a marker of aging tissues."

Remarkably, the team also has preliminary evidence that they may be able to reverse the features of early aging in the immature mice by turning off p16.

The experiments also provide insight into how p16 suppresses tumor formation. Looking closely at the intestines of wild-type and engineered mice, the researchers saw that the p16 protein accumulates in the stem cells of the tissue and prevents them from dividing. Additionally, p16 expression reduced tumor formation in a mouse model of intestinal cancer. Putting those two observations together, Enders and colleagues think that p16 suppresses tumor formation by restraining proliferation of pre-cancerous stem cells, as well as tumor cells. They are currently testing that hypothesis.

Retiring in 10 years: Should I invest in annuities?

http://money.cnn.com/2011/06/14/pf/expert/retirement_saving_annuities.moneymag/index.htm?section=magazines_moneymag&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fmagazines_moneymag+%28Money+Magazine%29

Aside from guaranteeing income for life -- which no other investment can do -- annuities have another advantage: They can generate a higher level of sustainable income than any other investment earning the same return.

How, you may ask, is that possible? Well, some people who buy annuities will die before life expectancy, while others will live longer.

That allows insurers to build into their annuity payouts extra payments known in insurance circles as a "mortality credits." "The insurer is essentially passing along money that would have gone to the people who die early to those who are still alive," says David Blake, director of the Pensions Institute at the Cass Business School in London. "That amounts to an additional return."

For extra safety, you can spread however much you plan to invest among two or three such insurers and also take care that the amount you invest with any single company doesn't exceed the coverage limit of the life insurance guaranty association in your state.

Stanford biostatistician talks about saving your aging brain

http://scopeblog.stanford.edu/2011/06/qa-with-stanford-biostatistician-on-how-to-save-your-aging-brain/

Previous studies have shown that eating berries can boost brain health. How can certain foods slow the brain’s natural aging process?

Three major food choices affect our brain function. The first is total caloric intake, which dramatically affects both lifespan and cognitive decline. In animal studies, for every 2 percent reduction in total calories, we see about a 1 percent to 2 percent extension of lifespan. So reducing calories by 20 percent gives about a 10 percent to 20 percent extension in lifespan. There is a limit: 100 percent reduction doesn’t work. Up to 50 percent calorie reduction appears to extend lifespan.  In the island of Okinawa in Japan, more people live to over 100 years of age than anywhere else in the world. Their rates of stroke, cancer, dementia and other age-associated diseases are among the lowest in the world. Why? While many factors may contribute, caloric restriction appears to be one of the most important. In the course, we’ll look at effective ways to reduce caloric intake.

The second is the type of fat we eat. The type and amount of fat you eat determines:

• The number of dendrites and synapses in your neurons
• The type and amount of neurotransmitters your neurons produce
• Your ability to learn
• Your mood
• Your risk of stroke, Alzheimer’s disease and Parkinson’s disease

Good fats (polyunsaturated fats such as omega-3 fatty acids) are major components of our neural synapses and the mitochondria that produce the energy our neurons need. Insufficient omega-3 can contribute to loss of cognitive abilities as well as to early death from heart disease. Saturated fats and hydrogenated fats are bad for your brain.

Carol Greenwood, PhD, at the University of Toronto has studied the effects of fat on the brain.  In one set of experiments, Dr. Greenwood fed rats diets containing up to 10 percent saturated fat and tested their learning ability. The result: The rats’ ability to learn fell directly with the amount of saturated fat in the diet. For rats on a diet of 10 percent saturated fat, their learning ability was near zero. The average saturated fat in Americans diets? About 11 percent.

The third food choices with major effects on our brain function are the antioxidants. This is where berries come in. Many studies in animals show that high levels of anti-oxidants can greatly extend lifespan and maintain cognitive function. However, for humans, achieving these benefits probably requires more antioxidants that we get from food sources. In the course, we’ll talk about which supplementary sources are effective.

Buffett: How inflation swindles the equity investor (Fortune, 1977)

Let's wade through a little arithmetic about book and market value. When stocks consistently sell at book value, it's all very simple. If a stock has a book value of $100 and also an average market value of $100, 12% earnings by business will produce a 12% return for the investor (less those frictional costs, which we'll ignore for the moment). If the payout ratio is 50%, our investor will get $6 via dividends and a further $6 from the increase in the book value of the business, which will, of course, be reflected in the market value of his holdings.

If the stock sold at 150% of book value, the picture would change. The investor would receive the same $6 cash dividend, but it would now represent only a 4% return on his $150 cost. The book value of the business would still increase by 6% (to $106) and the market value of the investor's holdings, valued consistently at 150% of book value, would similarly increase by 6% (to $159). But the investor's total return, i.e., from appreciation plus dividends, would be only 10% versus the underlying 12% earned by the business.

When the investor buys in below book value, the process is reversed. For example, if the stock sells at 80% of book value, the same earnings and payout assumptions would yield 7.5% from dividends ($6 on an $80 price) and 6% from appreciation -- a total return of 13.5%. In other words, you do better by buying at a discount rather than a premium, just as common sense would suggest.

During the postwar years, the market value of the Dow Jones industrials has been as low as 84% of book value (in 1974) and as high as 232% (in 1965); most of the time the ratio has been well over 100%. (Early this spring, it was around 110%.) Let's assume that in the future the ratio will be something close to 100%, meaning that investors in stocks could earn the full 12%. At least, they could earn that figure before taxes and before inflation.

The arithmetic makes it plain that inflation is a far more devastating tax than anything that has been enacted by our legislatures. The inflation tax has a fantastic ability to simply consume capital. It makes no difference to a widow with her savings in a 5% passbook account whether she pays 100% income tax on her interest income during a period of zero inflation, or pays no income taxes during years of 5% inflation. Either way, she is "taxed" in a manner that leaves her no real income whatsoever. Any money she spends comes right out of capital. She would find outrageous a 120% income tax, but doesn't seem to notice that 6% inflation is the economic equivalent.

http://features.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2011/06/12/warren-buffett-how-inflation-swindles-the-equity-investor-fortune-1977/?section=money_pf&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fmoney_pf+%28Personal+Finance%29

HOW, AND WHEN, TO MAKE A DECISION

Tuk tested two sets of participants. The first was told to drink five cups of water; the second to take just five sips. After 40 minutes, they were tested on their decision-making abilities. Tuk says that the group who were, by now, crossing their legs, were better able to exercise self-control and hold out for larger rewards.  http://moreintelligentlife.com/content/ideas/bill-ridgers/how-and-when-make-a-decision
Sometimes the interviewers held a heavy clipboard, sometimes a light one. When holding a heavy clipboard, the interviewer was more likely to view the applicant as having gravitas. Those interviewed by someone holding a light clipboard were seen as more flaky. It seems our minds take many such physical metaphors literally. Other studies have found that sitting on a hard chair when negotiating the price of a car will make you negotiate harder, and that holding a hot cup of tea when meeting someone will make you more warmly disposed towards them than if you are holding an iced drink.
The reason, Ackerman believes, is that touch is the first sense that we develop after birth. “People learn how to make decisions about the world by understanding what they’ve already experienced, and that means the physical world.” The ability to think in the abstract, of course, comes much later.
most of us already realise that making decisions when we are exhausted is not advisable. Yet the effect that tiredness has on us is counter-intuitive. Chee says that we tend to believe that we become overly cautious in order to compensate. But the truth, he says, is that a lack of sleep makes us much too optimistic in our decision-making.

Yo-Yo Dieting Vs. Obesity? Dieters May Be Healthier, Live Longer, Mouse Study Suggests

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/06/110606142342.htm

In the first study on yo-yo dieting of its kind, List and colleagues followed 30 mice on one of three dietary regimens over the course of a little over two years, the typical lifespan of this particular strain of laboratory mouse. The animals on the high-fat diet ate more, weighed more and had higher levels of body fat and fasting blood glucose. They also become glucose intolerant, or pre-diabetic, said List, whose research is supported by the National Institutes of Health, AMVETS and Ohio University.

The health profile of the mice on the yo-yo diet declined during their high-fat food phases, but their weight and blood glucose levels returned to normal levels during their low-fat diet stages. Lifespan -- the "gold standard" for lifelong health status -- was 2.04 years for the yo-yo dieting mice, compared to 1.5 years for the obese mice. The control group lived, on average, for 2.09 years.

About 34 percent of American adults are considered to be obese; an additional 34 percent are classified as overweight, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Although millions of Americans diet each year, research has shown that few people maintain long-term weight loss.

Hidden temporal order unveiled in stock market volatility variance

In summary, our methodology can be used as a quantitative measure for the amount of local
temporal order. For any specific sample length n, the comparison between the variance of the samples
volatility for the original series and that of the shuffled one can be used as a measure for the temporal
order for that specific n. Repeating that procedure for each value of n, we get an integral measure for
the temporal order. Furthermore, it seems that the volatility is very important for technical analysis.
Our results suggest that traders who use technical analysis should use local temporal behavior of the
volatility, besides local temporal order of the return and the trade volume.  http://scitation.aip.org/getpdf/servlet/GetPDFServlet?filetype=pdf&id=AAIDBI000001000002022127000001&idtype=cvips&doi=10.1063/1.3598412&prog=normal http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/06/110608122819.htm

They analyzed the volatility time series of 10 different stock markets from seven countries over a period of about 50 years and, rather than following traditional economic analyses, they analyzed time variations in the volatility -- or the "volatility of volatility," a.k.a. "fear volatility."

In all markets studied, analysis revealed the existence of hidden temporal order in the volatility and very high correlations between the volatility and the magnitude of price variations. This marks the first time hidden temporal order has been found in these market "human factors."

The existence of such volatility order, or "ordered fear," implies that proper portfolio design should take into consideration the "volatility of volatility," according to the team. For example, the common approach to reducing risk is to select stocks with negative or low correlations in their sequence of returns. The new findings suggest that selection criteria should incorporate the correlations in the stocks' volatility dynamics.

"We're working on incorporating human factors into market analysis," Ben-Jacob says, "by constructing a new parameter to replace the traditional systemic risk parameter."

Active Social, Spiritual and Physical Life Helps Prevent Health Decline in Seniors, Study Finds

Guided by lifestyle advisors, seniors participating in the study made small, sustainable changes in their routines (such as visiting a museum with a friend once a week) that led to measurable gains in quality of life, including lower rates of depression and better reported satisfaction with life.

The study validates the current trend in public health strategies to focus on preventing illness and disability, as opposed to treating issues once they have already begun to negatively impact health, according to lead investigator Florence Clark."Being engaged in a social life has a positive effect on health," she said, "but the public is not sufficiently aware of how key this is to successful aging."

To determine the results of the trial, quality of life was measured using a variety of indicators, including physical health, mental health, social well-being and life satisfaction. The program participants were compared to a control group that did not receive the intervention.

Though the two groups started out roughly equivalent, the intervention group showed significant improvement in lessening bodily pain and depression while improving vitality, social function, mental health and overall life satisfaction.

Lesser, though still measurable, gains were made in general health and physical abilities.

At the end of the first phase of the trial, the control group was provided with the same treatment that had been given to the intervention group -- and made identical progress.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/06/110608093948.htm

Invest for income: How to do it now

Analysts at Edward Jones studied the performance of stocks from 1972 through 2010. They found that when you factor in a stock's yield and changes in share price -- in other words, its total return -- the highest-yielding shares in the S&P 500 actually lost an average of 0.3% annually. By contrast, stocks that increased their dividends returned 9.6% on average during this stretch.

Say you invested $100,000 in a stock yielding 3%. You'd earn $3,000 in income this year. But assuming that payout grew 15% annually, it would take only five years for your annual income to grow to $6,000. True, you'd have earned $6,000 right off the bat by going with a 6% yielder. But if the company was straining to meet those lofty payouts and was forced to cut its dividends, then where would you be?

Dividend growth can also help your income keep up with inflation, says Edward Jones strategist Kate Warne. She points out that since 1947, the rate of dividend growth has outpaced inflation by nearly two percentage points a year.

SPDR S&P Dividend (SDY) (SDY) 3.1% yield; three-year annual return: 5.8%. This MONEY 70 fund sets the dividend growth bar high: It invests only in companies that have increased their dividends for 25 consecutive years. That makes for an exclusive club of 60 companies, including McDonald's (MCD, Fortune 500) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500).

Thornburg Investment Income Builder (TIBAX) (TIBAX) 5.6% yield, three-year annual return: 5.5%. Since Income Builder was launched in late 2002, the dividends it has produced have grown 11% annually. The fund takes a global approach, investing 49% of its assets overseas and holding 23% in bonds and cash.

Vanguard Dividend Appreciation (VIG) (VIG) 1.9% yield; three-year annual return: 4.2%. This ETF tracks stocks with at least a 10-year history of hiking payouts, such as Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500) and Coca-Cola (KO, Fortune 500).http://money.cnn.com/2011/06/08/pf/investing_for_income.moneymag/index.htm?section=money_pf&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fmoney_pf+%28Personal+Finance%29

 Why to invest in companies serving the middle class in Asia like BMW and Walt Disney.McKinsey predicts that some 2 billion people in a dozen emerging economies will spend $20 trillion annually in a decade, up from $7 trillion today. "People will reach a point where their basic needs are taken care of and disposable income increases at a very rapid rate," 

What to major in at college? Ivy League Prep

It's not what you know, but who you know: play sports at a top notch college -> get to Wall Street.

Opinions article about Reinventing Death in the American Medical System

"We need to change our priorities for the elderly. Death is not the only bad thing that can happen to an elderly person," the authors write. "An old age marked by disability, economic insecurity, and social isolation are also great evils."http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/05/110531141830.htm

• shift resources for the elderly to greater economic and social security and away from more medical care;
• subsidize the education of physicians, particularly those who go into primary care, and decrease medical subspecialization;
• train physicians better to tell the truth to patients about the way excessively aggressive medicine can increase the likelihood of a poor death;
• shift the emphasis in chronic disease to care rather than cure